My Sept. 7 post noted that gold had broken out from a consolidation triangle, a move that often forecasts still higher prices. And, higher prices we got, with gold hitting an intraday high just short of $1,012.00 in the New York market on Friday, Sept. 11. Silver followed suit, closing at $16.72. However, it was learned Friday that the large commercials (LCs) increased their COMEX short positions in gold to an all-time record high of 270,797 contracts. The previous record was 252,740 contracts, set in February 2008.

It needs to be noted that the reporting cutoff was Tuesday, which means that the LCs had three additional trading days since the report to add to (or reduce) their positions. The common guess is that they increased their shorts, but we will not know until Friday, Sept. 18.

Increases in the LCs’ short positions often have been harbingers of price declines, sometimes precipitous declines over a few days. However, the LCs have not always enjoyed lower prices after increasing their short positions. In fact, the previous record 252,740 contracts in February 2008 came just before sharp price increases. Although the LCs often get it right and get to cover their short positions at lower prices, that is not always the case.

Gold’s mighty move from the summer of 2005 through the spring of 2006, basically a move from $450 to $700, occurred while the LCs carried large short positions, resulting huge losses for the LCs. So, the big boys are not always on the right side of the moves.

If the LCs always increase their short positions on price rises, there have to be times when they suffer losses because gold and silver are in long-term bull markets. Could this be one of those times?

Gold is up three-fold since 2001, from $250 to $1,000. Silver’s 2001 low was just above $4 to just short of $17. This is a great gold/silver bull market, and I don’t see it ending any time soon. If you’re in, buy the dips. If you’re not yet holding physical gold or silver, buy now. Get comfortable with the process. See that the metal you’re getting is real, not electronic impulses on silica bubbles.

Readers of this blog mostly are long-term gold/silver investors who are not concerned with intermediate moves in gold/silver prices except to use dips in prices as opportunities to add to their positions. Still, daily $1 jumps in silver and $20 jumps in gold are of interest to all precious metals investors. If nothing else, investors have wonder if the moves are of significance in the long-term view.

Gene Arensberg, analyst and editor of Got Gold Report, believes that gold’s September 2 price increase of $21.50 was significant in that it was a breakout from a huge consolidation triangle. Arensberg expects the trading to continue in the direction of the trend that preceded the consolidation. The direction of the trend preceding the consolidation triangle was, of course, up.

This is reassuring to investors who have bought in the past few months. Investors who entered the gold/silver market a few years back were long ago confident that they made correct decisions. Technically, the picture is not as clear for silver, but the price action to the upside confirmed gold’s move out of the triangle.

Reassuring to silver investors are the positions reported by the large bullion banks. The nominal sizes of the banks’ short positions in silver were essentially unchanged, meaning that the banks did not add to their short positions as prices rose, which is what they usually do if they expect lower prices in the intermediate. When the bullion banks expect lower intermediate prices, they add to their short positions.

Relative to all commercial traders’ (36 in all) net short silver futures positions, the two bullion banks’ percentage fell from 76.3% to 62.2% over the past month. This is another short-term positive sign for silver investors as it suggests the bullion banks are not yet ready again to take increased short positions in silver.

Arensberg’s analysis also shows the bullion banks lightening their short positions in gold, which may be the reason that gold broke out of the consolidation triangle. Or, the bullion banks may have reduced their short gold positions out of fear that gold was going to break out the triangle regardless of what they did.

Although following what the bullion banks are doing is interesting (sometimes fascinating), the overriding reasons for buying gold and silver are the expansive monetary policies of the world’s central banks, primarily the US central bank, the Federal Reserve System. In the short-run, the bullion banks’ activities will influence the prices of gold and silver, but in the long-run the quantity of freshly-created fiat currencies will determine gold and silver prices.

Arensberg’s Got Gold Report is, in my opinion, the best free technical analysis of the gold/silver market, especially his look at the large commercials’ and the bullion banks’ positions in the gold and silver markets. I encourage gold/silver investors interested in technical analyses to read Arensberg’s Got Gold Report, a copy of which will be posted on www.stockhouse.com in a few days. When the report is up, I will provide a link.

In announcing that Ben Bernanke would be reappointed to a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman, the White House admitted that the US debt situation continues to worsen. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the US debt outlook is worse than what the White House says.

The White House projected that over the next ten years the budget deficit would be $2 trillion more than previously projected. Critics had loudly condemned the earlier projections as “rosy.” “Out of touch with economic reality,” some said. The critics have been validated.

The CBO now says the ten-year projection for the deficit is $7.14 trillion, some $2 trillion more than projected as recently as March. It seems that every time new deteriorating economic statistics are evaluated, the economy looks even more bleak and the deficit projection looks even bigger. Can any of the numbers be relied on? Probably not.

It was only six months ago that the White House and the CBO numbers were some $2 trillion lower. What will be the ten-year projection in another six months?

The CBO’s $7.14 trillion projection assumes no changes in Obama administration policies. If the administration’s fiscal plans are allowed for, the CBO’s ten-year deficit projection swells to more than $10 trillion. Historically, the CBO has produced more accurate predictions than the White House. White House predictions nearly always are politically tainted regardless of what party holds the presidency.

The White House expects that economy to shrink by 2.8% this year compared with its earlier estimate of 1.2%. It also expects unemployment to exceed 10% and to stay higher than 8% until the end of 2011. The White House and the CBO see this year’s budget deficit at around $1.6 trillion, which probably will be right considering that this fiscal year ends September 30.

An innovative and economical mass production technology for building mobile phones, iPhones, picture-phones, and a host of other hand-held electronics allows components to be fastened both mechanically and electronically to printed circuit boards. The technology permits upwards of 200 contacts for components and connections on a small board, increasing the range of features possible in the device while keeping it extremely small.

This development will, according to The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey, increase the proportion of silver used in electronic devices in the coming years. Also according to the World Silver Survey, 61.4 million ounces of silver were used for electrical and electronics fabrication in the US in 2008, with world use at 201.7 million ounces.

A more detailed discussion of this development and its impact on the silver market can be found in the 2009 Second Quarter issue of Silver News.

Silver News also reports continued improvement in the use of broad-spectrum antimicrobial properties of ionic silver in wound dressings. Antimicrobial ionic silver kills a broad range of pathogens and is being hailed as a major break through in wound dressings. Although antimicrobial ionic dressings now are used mostly in hospitals, products for over-the-counter sales are coming available.

Additional developments for uses of silver in the medical field are discussed in the 2009 Second Quarter issue of Silver News.

Additionally, Silver News reports on the development of a line of jewelry boxes that promise to keep silver tarnish free for up to 35 years. The boxes are lined with a cloth that absorbs gases that cause silver to tarnish, according to the developer, Wolf Designs, which has been making jewelry cases since 1834.

With gold just off all-time high prices, silver jewelry is gaining in popularity. Supposedly, Pandora Jewelry, which is basically silver jewelry, is now the best-selling jewelry in the world. Pandora’s success comes from the company offering a wide variety of attractive but inexpensive pieces.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner can’t sell his house. Maybe it because he is asking more than the $1.6 million that he paid in 2004 at the top of the housing boom. Housing prices are down, on average, 30% from the 2004 top. Any doubt but that some wealthy person seeking to curry a favor with the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States will pay the asking price?

Anyone remember Hillary Clinton’s “brilliant” commodity trading that made her nearly $100,000 in a few months while husband Bill was governor of Arkansas? It is suspected that Hillary’s profits came from a setup where a wealthy benefactor took the losing sides of all Hillary’s positions and Hillary collected the profitable trades. If someone would do that for a governor’s wife, what would they do for the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States?

Comedy Central did a delightful video on Geithner’s house; well worth the view.