Archive for May, 2007

James Turk questions silver ETF

Sunday, May 27th, 2007

James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney.com and co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar, in a recent editorial questioned the integrity of iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver exchange traded fund (ETF). Turk makes a lengthy analysis that should be read by any silver investor considering a large investment in iShares.

Cmigs, a seller of physical gold bullion and silver bullion, advocates investors taking delivery of their investments. At one time, the dollar was “as good as gold,” until President Franklin Roosevelt made the dollar no longer redeemable in gold specie.

GFMS’ World Silver Survey for 2007 released

Friday, May 25th, 2007

Gold Fields Mineral Services has released its World Silver Survey for 2007, and mineweb.com has posted a review. The report is quite bullish, which should come as no surprise to anyone who is following the silver market.

Meanwhile, resourceinvestor.com also has reviewed the survey. Of interest to silver investors is Jason Hommel’s comment:

“If the wider public became aware of the silver fundamentals, net silver investment would be much higher, and so would silver prices. With a market this tight, and the world this unaware, the silver price will probably rise much higher than anyone can predict.”

A hardcopy of the Survey costs $195 and can be ordered from the Silver Institute. Note on the ordering page that a summary of the 2006 Survey is free in pdf format.

JM Platinum (and Palladium) Review released

Saturday, May 19th, 2007

CMIGS rarely recommends palladium and platinum because they are not monetary metals. Still, we they are precious metals, which is what CMIGS buys and sells.

The best source of information on palladium (and platinum) is Johnson Matthey, which boasts of being “the world’s leading authority on the production, supply and use of platinum and palladium.” JM has just released its annual review of the platinum and palladium markets, and the review is available in pdf format for interested investors.

Several aspects of the palladium market are worth mentioning.

First, the primary consumer of palladium is the autocatalyst industry, which annually makes up some 60% of annual consumption. A worldwide recession would hit auto sales hard and lessen demand. However, continued economic expansion should keep auto sales strong. Because CMIGS fears a recession, we urge caution in the palladium (and platinum) market.

The second aspect is the emerging palladium jewelry market in China, a relatively recent phenomenon. Basically, palladium for jewelry did not get started in China until 2004. Therefore, in 2004 and 2005, China’s jewelry industry was “filling the pipeline,” which required big quantities of palladium.

So, in 2006, when demand for palladium in China fell 50%, it was interpreted by many to be a major negative for palladium. In reality, the Chinese palladium market is still emerging and potentially stands to be a huge factor in the demand for palladium.

Again, we urge investors to visit the Johnson Matthey website and study the JM Platinum Review before buying palladium. The JM Platinum Review contains an analysis of the palladium market.

We also urge investors interested in palladium to read our comments on the palladium market. Popular palladium products are the RCM’s 1-oz Palladium Maple Leaf coins and the Credit Suisse and the PAMP 1-oz palladium bars.

Congress set to control federal spending

Friday, May 18th, 2007

As it is when a country is at war, other important matters go unnoticed. This is certainly true when it comes our federal government’s finances.

Congress just passed a $2.9 trillion dollar budget plan for the fiscal year starting October 1, 2007. The bill is a blueprint for Congress to follow this year as it writes tax and spending legislation for next year. And, the Democrats put their stamp on the federal budget.

The measure would increase spending for favorite Democratic programs, such as education, community development grants and veterans’ medical care. However, the Republicans faulted the plan for failing to allow for looming shortfalls in benefits programs such as Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid.

Spending on these senior citizen programs increases automatically with inflation and as new beneficiaries become eligible. With the first of the baby boomers set to begin retiring next year, the rolls of recipients will climb rapidly. Some studies show Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid payouts bankrupting the federal government by 2030.

Although the plan calls for a small surplus by 2012 although, it would increase deficit over the next few years. But, don’t make any bets that a surplus will be achieved in 2012. Projected surpluses have a way of disappearing as forecasts give way to reality.

Besides, when it comes to the federal deficit, the books are cooked.

The best way to see what the federal government is actually doing is to monitor the official debt. On January 1, 2000, the official federal debt stood at $5.78 trillion; today it is about $8.71 trillion, nearly a 51% increase in less than eight years, with no end in sight to increases in federal spending.

And, have you noticed that the financial state of affairs of the federal government is NOT an issue in the embryonic presidential campaign? How can the problem be addressed if it is not even recongized by the presidential candidates?

CPM Group bullish on silver

Tuesday, May 15th, 2007

Resourceinvestor.com has released an article reviewing what appears to be CPM Group’s Annual Silver Survey. We say “appears to be” because the article only calls the CPM work a “report.” Looking at the nature of the CPM observations about silver and the silver market, and the fact that it is May when CPM Group usually releases its Annual Survey, it our guess that resourceinvestor.com is referring to the annual report by CPM Group.

CPM’s Annual Silver Survey is one of the two authoritative annual silver surveys. The other is compiled by Gold Fields Minerals Services for the Silver Institute.

Anyway, the report is quite bullish on silver, noting that in recent years silver investors were net buyers of silver in 2006 for the first time since 1990. The review says:

For the past 15 years, investors have been net sellers of silver from long-held inventories, which is reflected by both increased buying by new investors entering the silver market and decreased selling from long-held silver investment inventories built up from the 1950s through the 1980s, the CPM Group explains in the report.

CMIGS disagrees with the above assessment, based on our observations of premiums on the products we sell.

Between January 2000 and the end of 2003, silver traded below $6. During that time, our clients bought more silver than they sold, which required us to buy 100-oz silver bars and 1-oz silver rounds from refineries.

Further, with silver below $6, buyers had to pay up to sixty cents an ounce premium for 100-oz silver bars, which was a premium in excess of 10% (and at time nearly 15%). Premiums on 1-oz silver rounds, which have a higher cost of production and handling, were even higher.

However, for the last several years, we have not had to go to refineries for either 100-oz silver bars or 1-oz silver rounds. Both have been readily available in the secondary market because of investor selling. And, premiums are significantly smaller on a percentage basis, and they are even smaller on an absolute basis.

In 2006, premiums on 100-oz silver bars were as low as twenty-five cents and were there again a few weeks ago when silver traded near $14. As this is written, premiums on 100-oz bars are closer to forty cents, which is only 3%.

What we see is diametrically opposite of what CPM sees concerning individual investor activity in the silver market.

Yet it should be noted that CPM is looking at the really long-term situation, talking about supplies from the 1950s. But, for the last couple of years, while prices have climbed higher, there has been an abundance of silver in the secondary market, which can only mean selling by individual investors.